US President Joe Biden’s March 2024 statement opposing Nippon Steel’s purchase of US Steel — saying ‘it is vital for it to remain an American steel company that is domestically owned’ — may help his uphill drive for re-election. Indeed, a week later, the United Steelworkers (USW) union endorsed his re-election. But Biden’s remarks by no means preclude the merger.

On the contrary, Nippon Steel and the union are still negotiating whether Nippon Steel can agree to conditions that the United Steelworkers deem necessary to get its acceptance. The negotiations are arduous and the outcome is uncertain. But, according to informed observers, both sides are serious and both see the urgency of reaching a deal before the November election.

If they do, Biden would be politically free to support the merger. Hence, the government’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) would then approve it, just as it has approved every other Japanese purchase of a US company.